My duty as a financier

John Felipe Branch, economics

My duty as a financier towards my LinkedIn friends, most of you close acquaintances.

I usually talk about blockchain and entrepreneurship on this network, but macroeconomics is a field I have much passion for, and experience after having lived through 4 different currencies Swiss francs (my new home), euros (Spain + Germany), British pounds (lived in UK, pre brexit), and Colombian pesos (family influenced). Even for a very short period lived a currency change within a country, from pesetas to EUR.

I am very afraid about the existence of the Euro and the wealth of many savers in the European Union. The inflation you are going through is the very beginning, the tip of the iceberg, the war in Ukraine is not anymore “the war in Ukraine”, it is the “we are in an economy of war” recognized by EU prime ministers.

I am a literate person in the history of economics and having read about past crises such as hyperinflations in the 1920s in Germany, we find ourselves in exactly the same situation.

The European Union is much broke, debt skyrocketing that will be paid via printing of Euros. Non competitive countries trying to live out of the Brussels help, “wealth distribution”, or as I would qualify it: equitably wealth destruction. Young generations qualified around Europe have no longer willingness to work because they are living out of inheritance money. Lack of a young qualified population + lack of willingness to work is a recipe for wealth destruction.

We are led by a politician aristocracy, ruling against any innovation with potential to break their status quo. Overruling, going beyond any of their competencies to stop innovative industries.

Currently the European Union is destroying wealth at a 10% rate per year. Everyday passing by the Euro is losing value against any other major currency in the world. That must be stopped, politicians must be held accountable for this wealth destruction of those hard working private citizens saving. Any State help you hear about is being awarded against your existing money, that means diluting your savings’ value. Do not celebrate any State help given to any industry. This magnitude of wealth destruction could be followed again by autocratic regimes, many times taught by history.

For me the European Union is bound to break apart and the Euro with it. The war + energy crisis is by far a greater risk than it was in the past economic crisis of 2008.

The much I was against the Ukrainian war and which should have been stopped at its very beginning, not now. The politicians have decided to act late, they are bringing the continent towards a war when there is nothing left to win.

My best suggestion for your savings: get out of the Euro, buy whatever you can and think might keep part of its value in the long run, highly diversified. Invest in developing countries' ETFs, invest in commodities, and crypto.

The Roaring hyper-Twenties are here.